HONOLULU, HI – AUGUST 23: 2018 Churned up surf crashes on rocks near the west end of Waikiki as Hurricane Lane approaches Waikiki Beach on Thursday, August 23, 2018 in Honolulu, Hi. (Photo by Kat Wade/Getty Images)
With Hawaii’s Big Island already receiving a reported 31 inches of rain, there’s no doubt that serious damage is in the works—no matter which way Hurricane Lane might head this weekend.
In fact, according to new data from CoreLogic, there are more than 48,000 homes at either “extreme” or “very high” risk of flood damage from the nearby hurricane. Damage to these properties would amount to upwards of $8 billion in reconstruction costs.
Most in danger is Oahu, where 36,083 homes are at extreme or very high risk of flood damage. Maui has more than 7,100 homes in danger, Kauai has 3,510 and Hawaii, 1,881.
If you lump in what CoreLogic categorizes as “high” or “moderate” risk, that brings another 80,000 homes into the fold—and a whopping $17 billion-plus in potential reconstruction costs.
According to David Smith, CoreLogic’s senior director of model development, the severe flood potential comes from the storm’s low speed.
“Hurricane Lane, currently a Category 2, is a slow-moving storm, which means rainfall potentials are higher than for storms that move at a faster pace,” Smith said. “Based on our wind field modeling starting from the August 24 5am HST forecast, 80% of Hawaii’s homes may experience tropical storm force winds. While this represents widespread risk across the state’s islands, the majority of homes will experience lower levels of tropical storm force winds as Lane continues its trajectory.”
The storm, which was downgraded from a Category 2 hurricane to Category 1 storm Friday afternoon, is expected to drop to tropical storm status by the end of the day. It’s forecasted to move away from the islands by 8 a.m. Saturday.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is reporting “catastrophic flooding” on the Big Island which likely will continue through the weekend.
“Excessive rainfall associated with this slow-moving hurricane will continue to impact the Hawaiian Islands into the weekend, leading to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides,” the center reported.
Hurricanes are typically rare for Hawaii, due to high pressure and cooler temperatures that generally steer the storms away. If it makes landfall this weekend, Lane would be one of only a handful of hurricanes to ever hit the islands. The last two on record were Hurricane Iwa (1982) and Hurricane Iniki (1992).
*This story has been updated as of 3 p.m. HST*